Tools · FI Simulator Advanced

FI Simulator Advanced

A two-phase simulator for compounding, inflation, pension offsets and the probability of reaching FI under a realistic range of portfolio outcomes.

Accumulation setup

Portfolio base, savings engine and asset assumptions.

You can model non-flat accumulation here: kids, mortgage ending, income boosts or any temporary drag on saving capacity.

Blended return 6.0%Expected annual volatility 10.6%

Accumulation inputs

Define starting wealth, recurring savings and any other recurring income that effectively funds the accumulation phase.

Asset allocation and risk

One asset per line. Each row shows exactly which performance proxy it maps to, so assumptions stay transparent.

Portfolio nominal return: 7.1%

Expected annual volatility: 10.6%

Allocation total: 100.0%

Historical portfolio return · 55y overlap | Historical portfolio volatility · 55y overlap | Computed from PFAtlas historical proxies, not literal fund history.

Lifecycle cash-flow adjustments

Use this for children, mortgage ending, rental income, healthcare drag or any age-based cash-flow change. Positive values help cash flow. Negative values add drag. The same adjustment works in accumulation and in retirement.

No lifecycle adjustments active. Add one only if you want to model child costs, a mortgage ending, rental income, healthcare drag, or another age-based cash-flow change.
Recalculating simulation...

Retirement and gap

Define the destination.

Enter retirement spending as net spending. Leave tax rates at 0% to keep the old net-only assumption, or set pension and withdrawal taxes to gross-up the funding gap more realistically.

Load tax rates

Uses the current Spain savings scale for withdrawals and an indicative general IRPF approximation for pension income.

Savings tax is based on the current national savings brackets. Pension IRPF is only an estimate: actual taxation depends on region, personal minimums and family situation.

Uses approximate current U.S. federal long-term capital gains brackets for withdrawals and federal ordinary income brackets for pension income.

This is a federal single-filer approximation only. It does not include state taxes, filing status changes, Social Security treatment or account-specific rules.

Withdrawal rule

At retirement age 52, the portfolio must cover $2,400 net per month, which means $2,400 gross with current withdrawal taxes. Once public pension starts at 67, the remaining gap falls to $1,300 net and $1,300 gross per month.

FI age

No retirement age up to 90 keeps modeled ruin risk below 10%.

Wealth at retirement

Real purchasing-power outcomes at retirement age 52, reduced to downside, median and upside for a quick read.

P10
$150,000
P50
$150,000
P90
$150,000

Risk of ruin by age

Starting at retirement age 52, this shows cumulative ruin risk over the next decades, with the view kept tight enough to make the climb readable.

0%3%5%8%10%525762677277

FI age ladder

Earliest age that reaches each safety threshold.

50% safe
Not reached
60% safe
Not reached
70% safe
Not reached
80% safe
Not reached
90% safe
Not reached

Key outputs

Annual retirement spending$28,800
Net public pension income$13,200
Capital needed without pension$720,000
Capital needed at retirement$390,000
Expected real return3.4%
Annual contribution at start$30,000
Real wealth at retirement$150,000

Probability-adjusted wealth path

Focused short-to-medium horizon view, capped to 70.

Deterministic realMedian simulated10th-90th percentile25th-75th percentile40th-60th percentileFI threshold

Normal Monte Carlo uses expected return and volatility.

$0$120,000$240,000$360,000$480,000$600,000$720,0003540455055606570Retirement 52
Retirement trigger52
Deterministic real shows the smooth inflation-adjusted path if returns arrive exactly at the expected average each year. Median simulated shows the middle outcome across many volatile return paths, so it captures sequencing risk in a more realistic way.
Move retirement on the chart and the engine switches from accumulation to withdrawals from that age onward. Retirement spending is inflation-linked by default, so the nominal withdrawals rise over time to preserve real purchasing power.

Retirement portfolio switch

Test a different portfolio only for the retirement phase.

The base simulation above keeps the same portfolio all the way through. This optional scenario lets you implement a different retirement portfolio at a chosen age, not necessarily the retirement date, and compare how FI timing and ruin risk change.